Bulletproof your nest egg

The Futures Model: Why Your Retirement Outcome Depends on More Than Just Your Savings

August 07, 20256 min read

You’ve saved. You’ve sacrificed. You’ve played by the rules.

But here's the brutal truth: most retirement plans are built for only one version of the future—the one where nothing goes wrong.

That version almost never shows up.

Markets crash. Taxes rise. Healthcare costs explode. People live longer than expected. And suddenly, the "plan" falls apart.

That’s why at Virtus, we use something we call The Futures Model.

It’s a way to look at your retirement not as a fixed path, but as a range of possible futures—each shaped by your plan's ability to handle risk, generate income, and adapt over time.

In this blog, you'll discover:

  • The 4 most likely outcomes of retirement (only 1 of them is ideal)

  • The hidden risks most portfolios ignore

  • Why traditional plans are fragile by design

  • And how Possibility Planning gives you a roadmap to the retirement you actually want


Retirement Isn’t a Line—It’s a Branching Tree

Most people think of retirement like crossing a finish line.

You hit a magic number. You stop working. You live off your savings.

But the reality is more like this:
Once you retire, you step into a range of possible futures—some great, some good, some disastrous.

We’ve broken them into four categories:

  1. Disaster – You run out of money. You’re forced to go back to work. You lose control of your lifestyle, your health choices, even your dignity.

  2. Survival – You don’t run out of money… but only because you live cautiously. You under-spend, over-worry, and miss out on the retirement you imagined.

  3. Security – You have enough to maintain your lifestyle. You’re not worried. But you’re also not growing your wealth—or living fully.

  4. Freedom – You have guaranteed income, your assets continue to grow, you travel, give generously, enjoy family, and leave behind a meaningful legacy.

Here’s the key:

The future you land in doesn’t depend on how much you saved…
It depends on
the quality of your plan.


The House of Cards Problem: Why Most Plans Fail the Stress Test

Let’s say you have $1.5M saved in your retirement accounts.

That’s a big number. But without a plan that manages risk, timing, and income, it could be a house of cards.

A 20% market crash in the first year of retirement could cut your lifetime income by 30% or more.

A poorly timed withdrawal could mean paying tens of thousands in unnecessary taxes.

And if you live to 95 instead of 85? You might stretch that savings too far—unless you’ve built it to last.


What the Futures Model Tests For

The Futures Model is our way of evaluating how your plan handles what actually happens in retirement—not just what a software projection hopes will happen.

We stress test your plan across three critical threats:

1. Market Timing Risk

What happens if the market drops 20% in your first year of retirement? Most portfolios never recover from early losses if you're also withdrawing money.

2. Tax Drag

Do you have a tax strategy? Or are you planning to pay ordinary income tax on every dollar? Many retirees lose 20–30% of their savings to taxes—needlessly.

3. Longevity Risk

What if you live to 95 or 100? Does your plan account for two, even three decades of rising costs, health expenses, and inflation?

If your plan can’t handle those three futures, then you’re on shaky ground.


Possibility Planning: How to Plan for All 4 Futures

This is where Possibility Planning comes in.

It’s not a product. It’s not a guess. It’s a coordinated system that allows you to move from fragile to flexible—to build a plan that holds up across all 4 retirement outcomes.

We use 5 core pillars:

✅ 1. Replace It

You need to replace your paycheck with reliable, consistent income. This reduces fear and creates financial structure.
We often accomplish this using:

  • Social Security optimization

  • Income annuities (properly structured)

  • Pension maximization

  • Structured income notes

With your income covered, you don’t have to draw from volatile assets when markets are down.

✅ 2. Protect It

Your money is exposed to taxes, inflation, market drops, and healthcare shocks. You need protection strategies in place.
We address this with:

  • Insurance-backed income floors

  • Tax location strategies

  • Long-term care protections

  • Diversification that actually lowers risk

✅ 3. Grow It

Most retirees think growth ends at retirement. Wrong. You’ll need your money to keep working for you.
The key is uninterrupted compounding:

“$200K invested in the S&P 500 20 years ago would be $1.34M today—if untouched.”
But most plans
force you to interrupt that growth to live.
The solution? Design your income pillars first—so your growth pillar can stay in place and compound long-term.

✅ 4. Enjoy It

Planning isn't just about numbers—it's about life.
Your plan should allow you to:

  • Spend freely without guilt

  • Budget for travel, family, and passions

  • Adapt to changes without anxiety
    Freedom isn’t a dollar amount—it’s confidence.

✅ 5. Leave It

Your legacy should be intentional.
We help clients:

  • Use life insurance to transfer wealth tax-free

  • Build charitable giving into their plan

  • Ensure assets pass efficiently to loved ones
    And most importantly: to
    live now, knowing the legacy is already handled.


Real Life Example: David & Lisa – $1.5M Saved

David and Lisa, both 64, came to us with $1.5 million in savings.

They were financially responsible… but mentally stuck. They had no clear income plan. They were terrified of making the wrong move—and running out of money later.

Here’s how Possibility Planning helped:

  • $4,200/month guaranteed income from Social Security (optimized)

  • $2,000/month from an income annuity using $400K of assets

  • Essential expenses 100% covered

  • $1.1M remaining—allocated across a diversified portfolio focused on long-term growth and legacy planning

Now, their income is secure. Their growth isn’t interrupted. And their stress is gone.

They’re traveling. Spending time with grandkids. Confident that the future—no matter which version arrives—is covered.


The Difference Between Average and Amazing

If you want an average retirement, you can follow average advice:

  • Save more

  • Spend less

  • Cross your fingers

But if you want a great retirement—the kind where you don’t wake up worrying about money every Monday—you need a different model.

The Futures Model.

Possibility Planning.

A system built not on hope—but on structure.


Which Future Are You Headed Toward?

The best time to test your retirement plan is before something breaks.

That’s why we offer a complimentary Possibility Planning Session.
It’s a one-on-one conversation where we’ll:

  • Stress test your current plan using The Futures Model

  • Identify exactly where the risks are

  • Show you how to fix them using the 5 Retirement Pillars

Whether you’re 5 years out or already retired, this is your next best step.

👉 [Book your free Possibility Planning Session now]

Because the only thing worse than having no plan… is having one that collapses when you need it most.

Book Your Possibility Plan

As a CPA and financial advisor, I’ve helped thousands of people ‘Retire Well’. Retirement should be the time when you can finally relax and enjoy yourself.

Andrew Hall

As a CPA and financial advisor, I’ve helped thousands of people ‘Retire Well’. Retirement should be the time when you can finally relax and enjoy yourself.

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Virtus Wealth Management LLC ("Virtus Wealth"), dba Virtus Financial Group, is a Registered Investment Advisor ("RIA"), located in the State of Missouri. Virtus Wealth provides investment advisory and related services for clients nationally. Virtus Wealth will maintain all applicable registration and licenses as required by the various states in which Virtus Wealth conducts business, as applicable. Virtus Wealth renders individualized responses to persons in a particular state only after complying with all regulatory requirements, or pursuant to an applicable state exemption or exclusion

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